BITCOIN / THE OCTOBER BRIEF
Bitcoin’s Monetary Case Meets a Mixed Market
The October Bitcoin brief: price above its trend, a week of ETF outflows, and the lasting cost of consumer inflation.
THE LONG VIEWThe October brief /
Sound money. Clear thinking. Austrian economics, Bitcoin and the cost of inflation. Sourced evidence, clear arguments and the countercase.
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FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Three observations. Three limits.
Fixed research snapshots.
Each source has its own reporting clock.
01 / BITCOIN TREND16.3% above its average
Price is above the 200-day trend and 32.9% below the dataset’s peak. A trend is not a valuation.
Bitstamp close · 11 Oct 2026 02 / INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND−$678.9m in five sessionsNet US spot ETF outflows. One channel, one window; investor motives and hedges remain unknown.
Farside · 5–9 Oct 2026 03 / CASH PURCHASING POWER77.0 out of 100 remainsUnchanged cash against the US CPI basket since January 2020. No interest; not every household’s costs.
BLS / FRED · Aug 2026Go deeper into the evidence.
13 further articles
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s Monetary Case Meets a Mixed Market
The October Bitcoin brief: price above its trend, a week of ETF outflows, and the lasting cost of consumer inflation.
Sound money
Inflation Slows. The Loss of Purchasing Power Stays.
Why disinflation does not undo higher prices, what US CPI shows about cash, and how even small inflation rates compound.
Sound money
Who Gets New Money First? The Cantillon Effect.
Follow the route of new credit to understand unequal timing, monetary privileges, and similar incentives inside crypto.
Sound money
The Austrian Case for Bitcoin—and Its Limits
Mises, Hayek and the argument for monetary choice: economic calculation, credit incentives, verifiable rules and the strongest objections.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Cycles: Four Clocks, No Single Script
Understand Bitcoin market cycles through halving history, drawdowns, holder cost basis, ETF flows, leverage and liquidity.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin MVRV: A Cost-Basis Map, Not a Price Target
Learn how Bitcoin MVRV, realized price and NUPL are calculated, where their inputs overlap and how holder cohorts add context.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin ETF Flows: Demand, Redemptions and Hedged Positions
Understand Bitcoin ETF net flows, AUM, holdings and hedged positions, with a dated historical chart and transparent calculations.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Funding Rates and Open Interest Explained
Read Bitcoin funding rates and open interest with worked examples, consistent units and a framework for interpreting leveraged positions.
Macro
Bitcoin and Liquidity: Trace the Channel Before the Correlation
Explore Bitcoin liquidity through real yields, the broad dollar index and credit spreads, with a framework for testing macro claims.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin 200-Day Moving Average and Mayer Multiple
Learn how Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, Mayer Multiple and drawdowns are calculated, with historical charts and clear limitations.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s Supply Rules: What 21 Million Does—and Does Not—Promise
Understand Bitcoin’s 21 million supply limit, block subsidies and halving schedule, and why issuance differs from available market supply.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Custody Explained
Compare Bitcoin custody models through control, dependencies and recovery, with a practical framework for evaluating access risks.
Crypto
Token Value Accrual Explained
Trace crypto fees, revenue, token burns and holder rights to understand how network activity can connect to token value.
Macro
Cheap Credit Has a Cost: Interest Rates and Bitcoin
Understand how interest rates can affect Bitcoin through expectations, borrowing costs and capital allocation, with a worked policy example.
AI & infrastructure
AI Agent Payments and Crypto Value Accrual
Explore AI agent payments, x402 and wallet infrastructure, and trace which businesses or tokens could capture the economic value.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Miner Economics: Puell Multiple, Hashprice and Costs
Understand Bitcoin miner economics through Puell, hashprice, fees, efficiency and electricity costs, with a worked example of revenue pressure.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin SOPR Explained: Profit-Taking, Losses and Limits
Understand Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio, adjusted SOPR and holder cohorts through a worked example and the limits of profit-taking signals.
Bitcoin
Short-Term Holder Realized Price: Bitcoin Cost Basis Explained
Learn how Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis is calculated, why the 155-day methodology matters and how cohort changes affect the reading.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Futures Basis Explained: Pricing, Hedges and Risk
Learn how Bitcoin futures basis is calculated, what annualization means and why ETF inflows can accompany futures shorts, with transparent examples.
01
Real resources are scarce.
New credit creates purchasing claims. It does not, by itself, create the labour, energy and capital needed to fulfil them.
02
Inflation has a distribution.
Follow where new money enters, which prices adjust and whose income changes later. An average cannot tell the whole story.
03
Choice disciplines institutions.
We favour monetary competition and verifiable rules. Every alternative still needs evidence of usefulness and resilience.