{
  "publication": "Satswise",
  "url": "https://satswise.com/",
  "directoryUpdated": "2026-10-13",
  "methodsUrl": "https://satswise.com/research-methods",
  "editorialUrl": "https://satswise.com/about#editorial",
  "scope": "Dated research, documented definitions, hypothetical examples and editorial interpretation. Modification dates do not advance observation cutoffs.",
  "articles": [
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-briefing-october-2026",
      "title": "Bitcoin’s Monetary Case Meets a Mixed Market",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What does the October 2026 Bitcoin evidence show?",
      "answer": "Bitcoin closed above its 200-day average on 11 October 2026, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over 5–9 October. These dated observations test different parts of a market thesis; neither establishes a price forecast.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Fixed snapshot: Bitcoin through 11 October, ETF flows through 9 October, US CPI through August 2026.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.cryptodatadownload.com/data/bitstamp/",
        "https://farside.co.uk/btc/",
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/fiat-money-inflation",
      "title": "Inflation Slows. The Loss of Purchasing Power Stays.",
      "category": "Sound money",
      "question": "Does falling inflation restore purchasing power?",
      "answer": "A lower positive inflation rate means prices rise more slowly. It does not reverse earlier increases. For an unchanged cash balance, purchasing power against a price index equals the starting index divided by the later index.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Observed US CPI through August 2026; the constant-rate examples are hypothetical and exclude interest.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm",
        "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy",
        "https://mises.org/online-book/mises-reader-unabridged/chapter-10-monetary-theory-and-policy",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/cantillon-effect",
      "title": "Who Gets New Money First? The Cantillon Effect.",
      "category": "Sound money",
      "question": "What is the Cantillon effect?",
      "answer": "The Cantillon effect describes how the route and timing of new money can change relative prices and distribute purchasing power unevenly. The outcome depends on who receives and spends it, which prices adjust, and how contracts and incomes respond.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Conceptual mechanism and editorial interpretation; no distributional effect is estimated.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/higgs-essay-on-the-nature-of-trade-in-general-higgs-ed",
        "https://mises.org/online-book/mises-reader-unabridged/chapter-10-monetary-theory-and-policy",
        "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy",
        "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/how-is-money-created",
        "https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/austrian-economics-bitcoin",
      "title": "The Austrian Case for Bitcoin—and Its Limits",
      "category": "Sound money",
      "question": "What is the Austrian economics argument for Bitcoin?",
      "answer": "The Satswise argument connects monetary competition, prices as information and constraints on discretionary issuance to Bitcoin’s verifiable supply rules. This is an application of Austrian ideas, with counterarguments about adoption, volatility and monetary design.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Editorial interpretation of Mises and Hayek; limited issuance does not guarantee purchasing power.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://mises.org/online-book/theory-money-and-credit/chapter-12-social-consequences-variations-objective-exchange-value-money/2-economic-calculation-and-accountancy",
        "https://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw.html",
        "https://mises.org/online-book/human-action/chapter-xx-interest-credit-expansion-and-trade-cycle/6-gross-market-rate-interest-affected-inflation-and-credit-expansion",
        "https://iea.org.uk/publications/research/denationalisation-of-money-0",
        "https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-cycles",
      "title": "Bitcoin Cycles: Four Clocks, No Single Script",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What drives Bitcoin market cycles?",
      "answer": "A Bitcoin cycle describes expansion and contraction in price, demand and participation. Halvings change new issuance, while capital flows, holder behaviour and leverage change on their own clocks. A four-year pattern alone cannot establish the next market outcome.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Historical Bitstamp price observations through 11 October 2026; the 2024 halving period is incomplete.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.cryptodatadownload.com/data/bitstamp/",
        "https://bitcoin.org/en/halving",
        "https://github.com/coinmetrics/docs-website/blob/master/asset-metrics/market/capmvrvcur.md",
        "https://research.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/",
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/indicators",
        "https://farside.co.uk/btc/",
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/",
        "https://insights.deribit.com/education/introduction-to-deribit-metrics-page/",
        "https://docs.luxor.tech/hashrateindex/hashprice",
        "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=1&start=1779408000&end=1779494399",
        "https://www.cryptodatadownload.com/",
        "https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-over",
        "https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-where-is-the-bottom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/onchain-cost-basis",
      "title": "Bitcoin MVRV: A Cost-Basis Map, Not a Price Target",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "How is Bitcoin MVRV calculated?",
      "answer": "MVRV is market capitalization divided by realized capitalization. With consistent supply definitions, it also equals market price divided by realized price. The denominator models cost basis from coin movement and does not observe every investor’s purchase price.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Provider definitions and hypothetical calculations; no current MVRV or NUPL series is shown.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://github.com/coinmetrics/docs-website/blob/master/asset-metrics/market/caprealusd.md",
        "https://github.com/coinmetrics/docs-website/blob/master/asset-metrics/market/capmvrvcur.md",
        "https://research.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/",
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/market#sth-realized-price",
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/indicators"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/etf-flows",
      "title": "Bitcoin ETF Flows: Demand, Redemptions and Hedged Positions",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What do spot Bitcoin ETF flows measure?",
      "answer": "Net ETF flows describe capital entering or leaving the fund structure during a reporting period. They measure one route into Bitcoin exposure. A fund position may be hedged elsewhere, so net inflows do not establish an investor’s full directional exposure.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Short attributed Farside excerpt through 9 October 2026; investor motives remain unknown.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://farside.co.uk/btc/",
        "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf",
        "https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025-101-sec-permits-kind-creations-redemptions-crypto-etps",
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/equity-index/2025/Spot-ETFs-Give-Rise-to-Crypto-Basis-Trading.html"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/market-leverage",
      "title": "Bitcoin Funding Rates and Open Interest Explained",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "How do funding rates differ from open interest?",
      "answer": "Funding rates describe transfers between long and short perpetual-futures positions. Open interest counts outstanding derivatives exposure. Together they help frame positioning questions, but neither identifies net conviction or predicts a liquidation by itself.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Conceptual framework; no live derivatives series or liquidation forecast.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/derivatives/global-derivatives-funding",
        "https://support.deribit.com/hc/en-us/articles/31424939178397-Funding-Specifications",
        "https://insights.deribit.com/education/introduction-to-deribit-metrics-page/",
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/equity-index/2025/Spot-ETFs-Give-Rise-to-Crypto-Basis-Trading.html",
        "https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/index.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/macro-liquidity",
      "title": "Bitcoin and Liquidity: Trace the Channel Before the Correlation",
      "category": "Macro",
      "question": "How can liquidity affect Bitcoin?",
      "answer": "Liquidity may mean ease of trading, access to funding, or money and credit conditions. A Bitcoin thesis needs to name the measure and explain a channel through financing, exchange rates or risk appetite before treating a correlation as evidence of causation.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Analytical framework; no current macro series or causal coefficient is estimated.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS",
        "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/trend-and-miners",
      "title": "Bitcoin 200-Day Moving Average and Mayer Multiple",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What is the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple?",
      "answer": "The Mayer Multiple divides Bitcoin’s price by its 200-day simple moving average. A value above 1 places the price above that average; below 1 places it below. It measures distance from a historical trend, rather than fundamental value.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Completed daily Bitstamp closes through 11 October 2026; historical thresholds are not guarantees.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.cryptodatadownload.com/data/bitstamp/",
        "https://bitcoin.org/en/halving",
        "https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/",
        "https://charts.bitbo.io/mayermultiple/",
        "https://docs.luxor.tech/hashrateindex/hashprice"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-supply",
      "title": "Bitcoin’s Supply Rules: What 21 Million Does—and Does Not—Promise",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What does Bitcoin’s 21 million supply limit guarantee?",
      "answer": "Bitcoin’s issuance rules constrain new units through a block subsidy that declines at defined block heights. The conventional 21 million limit describes this schedule. It does not set market demand, the amount holders offer for sale, or the price of a bitcoin.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Protocol schedule and worked examples; no current circulating-supply estimate or price target.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://bitcoin.org/en/faq#how-are-bitcoins-created",
        "https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/block_chain.html",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/v29.0/src/validation.cpp",
        "https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/v29.0/src/kernel/chainparams.cpp"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-custody",
      "title": "Bitcoin Custody Explained",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What is Bitcoin custody?",
      "answer": "Bitcoin custody concerns who controls the keys or signing arrangement that authorizes spending, and how that authority is protected and recovered. Self-custody and a custodial account assign control and recovery responsibilities differently.",
      "evidenceLimits": "General custody models and hypothetical examples; no wallet or custodian has been tested or endorsed here.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/wallets.html",
        "https://bitcoin.org/en/secure-your-wallet"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/token-value",
      "title": "Token Value Accrual Explained",
      "category": "Crypto",
      "question": "What is crypto token value accrual?",
      "answer": "Token value accrual is the mechanism by which network use could create an economic benefit for token holders. Research must trace payments, fee destinations, supply changes and documented rights. More network activity alone does not establish a benefit to holders.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Mechanisms and hypothetical economics; no project valuation or current adoption dataset.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://ethereum.org/developers/docs/gas/",
        "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559",
        "https://ethereum.org/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/macro-context",
      "title": "Cheap Credit Has a Cost: Interest Rates and Bitcoin",
      "category": "Macro",
      "question": "How do interest rates affect Bitcoin?",
      "answer": "Interest rates can influence financing costs, competing returns, exchange rates and willingness to hold risk. A decision’s reason and the expectations already priced into markets matter. A rate cut does not mechanically imply a rise in Bitcoin’s price.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Transmission framework and hypothetical expectation arithmetic; no current policy-rate forecast.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm",
        "https://mises.org/online-book/human-action/chapter-xx-interest-credit-expansion-and-trade-cycle/6-gross-market-rate-interest-affected-inflation-and-credit-expansion"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/agent-payments",
      "title": "AI Agent Payments and Crypto Value Accrual",
      "category": "AI & infrastructure",
      "question": "What are AI agent payments?",
      "answer": "AI agent payments let software pay for resources while executing a task under delegated authority. A useful assessment separates the payment standard, wallet, resource provider and facilitator, then examines spending controls, settlement and evidence of delivery.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Documentation reviewed 12 October 2026; no hands-on benchmark or measured adoption claim.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-11",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://x402.org/",
        "https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/x402/how-it-works",
        "https://www.coinbase.com/en-ca/developer-platform/products/agentic-wallets",
        "https://www.fireblocks.com/products/agentic-payments"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-miner-economics",
      "title": "Bitcoin Miner Economics: Puell Multiple, Hashprice and Costs",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "Do hashprice and the Puell Multiple measure miner profit?",
      "answer": "Hashprice estimates revenue per unit of computing power. The Puell Multiple compares the dollar value of issuance with its recent history. Profit also depends on operating and capital costs, so neither measure is a complete profit calculation.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Attributed definitions and invented operating scenarios; no current hashprice or Puell reading.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/block_chain.html",
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/indicators#puell-multiple",
        "https://docs.luxor.tech/hashrateindex/hashprice",
        "https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/alternative-finance/publications/cambridge-digital-mining-industry-report/",
        "https://bitcoin.org/en/halving"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-sopr",
      "title": "Bitcoin SOPR Explained: Profit-Taking, Losses and Limits",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What does Bitcoin SOPR measure?",
      "answer": "SOPR compares spending-time and creation-time values for coins that moved on-chain. For an aggregate value-weighted ratio, above 1 indicates a profit and below 1 a loss on that basis. Unweighted averages and filtered variants can tell a different story.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Provider variants differ; figures and calculations are hypothetical, with no live SOPR observation.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/further-information/metric-guides/sopr/sopr-spent-output-profit-ratio",
        "https://gitbook-docs.coinmetrics.io/network-data/network-data-overview/economics/valuation#spent-output-profit-ratio-sopr",
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/indicators",
        "https://research.glassnode.com/sth-lth-sopr-mvrv/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/short-term-holder-realized-price",
      "title": "Short-Term Holder Realized Price: Bitcoin Cost Basis Explained",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What is short-term holder realized price?",
      "answer": "Short-term holder realized price estimates the on-chain cost basis of recent holdings. Glassnode’s age-based series uses unspent outputs younger than 155 days, values each at its creation price, and divides the cohort’s realized value by its BTC amount.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Provider-specific age definition and hypothetical cohort examples; no live cost-basis level.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://docs.glassnode.com/basic-api/endpoints/market#sth-realized-price",
        "https://research.glassnode.com/sth-lth-sopr-mvrv/",
        "https://research.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "url": "https://satswise.com/research/bitcoin-futures-basis",
      "title": "Bitcoin Futures Basis Explained: Pricing, Hedges and Risk",
      "category": "Bitcoin",
      "question": "What is Bitcoin futures basis?",
      "answer": "Futures basis is the difference between a dated futures price and the simultaneous spot price. Positive basis places the future above spot; negative basis places it below. The gap prices exposure to an expiry and is not a direct forecast of future spot.",
      "evidenceLimits": "Worked examples use simple 365-day annualization; no live quote or recommended trade.",
      "datePublished": "2026-10-12",
      "dateModified": "2026-10-13",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/equity-index/2025/Spot-ETFs-Give-Rise-to-Crypto-Basis-Trading.html",
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/mark-to-market",
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/margin-know-what-is-needed"
      ]
    }
  ]
}